Federal Income Tax & Refund Estimator (2026)

How the Federal Income Tax & Refund Estimator works

This tool estimates your 2026 federal income tax liability using the current tax brackets and standard deduction, applies the Child Tax Credit if you have qualifying children, and compares the result against what you've already had withheld to estimate whether you'll get a refund or owe more at tax time.

The formula

Worked example

A single filer with $70,000 in AGI and no children subtracts the $16,100 standard deduction to get $53,900 in taxable income. Applying the 2026 brackets — 10% on the first $12,400, 12% on the next $38,000, and 22% on the remaining $3,500 — comes to $6,570 in tax. If they had $7,000 withheld over the year, they'd get an estimated $430 refund.

Common mistakes

• Entering gross salary instead of AGI, which overstates taxable income if you have 401(k) or HSA contributions.
• Forgetting that the Child Tax Credit phases out above $200,000 MAGI ($400,000 married filing jointly) — high earners with kids may see a smaller credit than expected.
• Confusing your marginal bracket with your effective (average) tax rate — they're usually very different numbers.

Frequently asked questions

What actually moves this number

Specific levers, and roughly what each one is worth. Not “save more” — the things that change the figure above by an amount you can measure.

• Chase credits before deductions

  A $2,000 credit cuts your tax by $2,000. A $2,000 deduction cuts it by $2,000 times your bracket — $440 at 22%. When time is limited, the credit is worth four to five times the effort.

• Bunch itemized deductions into alternate years

  If you land just under the $16,100 or $32,200 standard deduction, two years of charitable giving in one calendar year can push you over in that year and let you take the standard deduction in the other — more total deduction across two years for the same money.

• Check whether a phase-out is taxing you at a higher effective rate

  Inside a phase-out range, each extra dollar both gets taxed and shrinks a credit, so your real marginal rate exceeds your bracket. It can make a deductible retirement contribution unusually valuable at exactly that income.

• A traditional contribution can move you down a bracket

  Deductible 401(k) and traditional IRA contributions reduce taxable income directly. If you are just over a bracket threshold or just over a phase-out start, that contribution buys back more than its face value.

What this calculator does not cover

Every calculator simplifies, and the useful thing is knowing exactly where. These are the specific gaps between this estimate and your real situation:

• It estimates federal income tax only. State and local income taxes, and payroll taxes, are separate.
• It models the standard deduction and common credits. Itemized deductions, business income, capital gains, and the alternative minimum tax are not part of the calculation.
• Phase-outs for credits and deductions are modeled where included, but the interaction between several phase-outs at once is where real returns get complicated.
• A refund estimate depends on withholding you enter. If that figure is wrong, the estimate is wrong by the same amount.

For anything that turns on an exact figure, use the primary sources below or a qualified professional. How these limits are decided and disclosed is described in the editorial standards.